Thursday, May 25, 2017

No Clear Thinking Among "Climate" Scientists



I have submitted the following comment to a post about the "global warming pause" on Dr. Roy Spencer's site (the link may not work, if Dr. Spencer did not allow it to appear):

"...when the next big warm El Nino occurs, the zero trend will end. And that’s exactly what happened, with the 2015-16 El Nino. A trend is very sensitive to what happens at the end of a time series, and a big (natural) warm blip from El Nino is just what the doctor ordered. No more zero trend."

Yet,

"You can’t build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming!"

Dr. Spencer thinks the mere appearance of an El Nino ends the zero trend; but, generally speaking, that would depend upon what the temperature does after the end of the El Nino. If it goes right back to the "zero trend" level, then the zero trend continues; the El Nino is then just a bump in the road, soon enough forgotten. And as others have pointed out, the 2015-16 El Nino did not cause temperature to go higher than the 1998 one did (which is comparing "oranges to oranges", i.e. the maximum temperature at successive El Ninos, not the rise of a given El Nino compared to the trend preceding it, or succeeding it for that matter).

And "you can't build a case for human-caused warming by relying on natural warming" logically implies you can't build a case (for human-caused warming from observation of the "end of the zero trend") by relying on the temporary natural warming due to an El Nino.

So the two quotes of Dr. Spencer's above are at odds with one another. The first should be recognized as generally not true (unless the world does not recover from the El Nino; and though I stopped following the temperature reports, I don't believe the current 0.27 C anomaly reported here is significantly above the "zero trend" level of recent years, as the 0.8+ of the El Nino surely was, but it's obviously now gone).

Just stop saying the zero trend, or "global warming pause", is over.

2 comments:

  1. Harry, if you look at the UAH temperature data from Roy's website you will see no change in average temperatures from 1979 to 1997 and 2000 to 2015. The 1998 El Nino jumped the average temp by 0.3 degC and that is the only temperature increase in the record. This shows there was no Global Warming (no gradual increase in average temps).

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    1. Good Morning, Chris,

      I will let others look at Spencer's satellite data as you suggest. Bob Tisdale has also presented many analyses, over a number of years, not limited to satellite data, apparently showing any global warming has been by steps due to El Niños, as you say.

      For myself, I am no longer impressed by ANY "global temperature" data (satellite or surface data) that purportedly shows any long-term global warming. When I performed my November 2010 Venus/Earth comparison (of temperature vs. pressure), I used the Standard Atmosphere model of the troposphere, which has been essentially unchanged for a century or more (I originally used the 1962 version, then the latest, 1976, version, with no change in the comparison). I used 1991 data for Venus (and a correspondent much later sent me Venus data from 1979-81, which also made no difference in the comparison). The precise fit between the century old Standard Atmosphere and the Venus data in 1991 tells me, and I believe any competent researcher, that there has been no global warming since the development of the Standard Atmosphere model (which, of course, no one who believes in any of the modern "global temperature" records wants to hear, much less confront as truth-seeking, real scientists--it will take real, thoughtful work, and a relinquishing of current consensus climate theory, to do so.)

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